Iran Talks And Strikes, Senate Opportunities For Democrats, Ebola Outbreak Epicenter

[00:02] The U.S., Iran and Israel keep opening fire in a regional war that was supposed to have stopped. President Trump is still pursuing peace and throws in a passing threat against Oman. [00:12] At what point would we say the war is back on? I mean, Ortiz, that is Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. [00:20] A U.S. Senate race in Texas went from safely Republican to uncertain. Republicans nominated the scandal-plagued state attorney general. They overwhelmingly rejected the incumbent senator, who had easily won the seat in the past. What does that mean for the party's chances of keeping control of the Senate? Also, the Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo is getting worse. [00:42] That's at the center of the outbreak. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. [00:48] Bye. [00:52] This message is from AT&T with your summer essential, the iPhone 17 Pro. Its center stage front camera auto adjusts the frame to fit everyone into group selfies. Right now at AT&T, ask how you can get iPhone 17 Pro on them with eligible trade-in. Requires eligible plan. Terms and restrictions apply subject to change. Visit att.com slash iPhone for details. [01:18] Support for NPR comes from IBM. On Smart Talks with IBM, Malcolm Gladwell explores how organizations are using technology to solve complex challenges in partnership with IBM. I spoke with Alon Cohen, who heads research and development at UFC. Insights Engine is not here to feel technical. We are bringing it to a place where you feel like you could even have an opinion because you understand enough of what's going on.

[01:46] Listen to Smart Talks with IBM wherever you get your podcasts. [01:51] This message comes from ADT. Imagine you're enjoying your first free day in months, and the next second your phone buzzes. A window has been broken at home, and you're miles away. That's why ADT offers professionally installed security systems backed by the most company-operated monitoring centers in the industry. With 24-7 monitoring, they're always keeping watch over your home, so you're always supported during an emergency. When every second counts, count on ADT. [02:21] more. [02:22] At what point would we say the Iran war is back on? Peace talks continue between the U.S. and Iran, but so do exchanges of fire. We're tracking attacks spanning from Lebanon to the Strait of Hormuz and even in Gaza, where despite a ceasefire there, Israel is ramping up strikes. NPR international correspondent Aya Batraoui is following all of this from Dubai. Hi there. Hey, good morning. Let's start with the situation in the Gulf. What's happening? [02:52] around the Strait of Hamuz, and struck an area along Iran's coast overnight. This morning, Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it responded to that U.S. attack on Bandar Abbas by targeting, the American base from which that attack originated. Kuwait this morning says it intercepted drones, so it appears Iran's attack was on U.S. positions there. Also, the Revolutionary Guard says it fired at an American commercial vessel trying to transit the strait yesterday and forced it to turn around. But of course, Steve, all of this is happening

[03:22] to permanently end the war. Although Israel, the U.S. allies, insisted it does not favor making a deal with this Iranian government and also that it wants to continue its war in Lebanon. In fact, the Israeli military says it struck a target in Beirut today. So what is happening in Lebanon? What's happening there is that Israel just issued evacuation warnings for one of the country's biggest cities there, Tyre. This displacement for Tyre in southern Lebanon really expands Israel's [03:52] Juwad Rizkala were speaking with families fleeing Tyre near the main coastal road who told them they have no idea where they're going to sleep and that they had no choice but to flee because of Israel's deadly airstrikes on that city. Now, there's already more than a million people displaced by Israel in this war in Lebanon, and people are sleeping on sidewalks in the capital Beirut with shelters overflowing. Lebanon's health ministry says nearly 3,300 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in this war. Hundreds of them are women and children and [04:22] responders. And Israel says that more than 20 Israeli soldiers and several civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire. But Iran says there can be no deal with the U.S. without that war in Lebanon also ending. So Israel ending that war is going to be key. [04:36] I appreciate hearing more than a million people displaced. That is like the entire population of my home city, Indianapolis, a million people. So how is President Trump moving ahead with negotiations given all the exchanges of fire you just described? [04:50] You know, it's hard to say if a deal is imminent, but all indications are that Trump is pursuing a diplomatic solution with Iran right now, not more war. That's what Gulf Arab states want as well, including mediators like Oman, which has long been a neutral, peaceful and trusted go-between for Washington and Tehran. But yesterday, Trump shocked people with a threat to blow up Oman. It was in response to a question at the White House about whether Iran and Oman, which border the Strait of Hormuz, would control access to this waterway under any deal.

[05:20] Have a listen. Nobody's going to control its international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else. So we'll have to blow them up. [05:29] They understand that. They'll be fine. Now, meanwhile, Steve, a person familiar with the matter and not authorized to speak publicly told NPR Trump just shared with Israel's prime minister and several leaders in the region a draft of the Iran deal for their comments. And to emphasize, this is only an interim deal to extend the current ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This would not include details on Iran's nuclear program. And again, Iran is insisting for that deal to happen. That war in Lebanon has to end. OK, so many, many things yet to be negotiated. NPR's Abitraoui, thanks as always. Appreciate it. [05:58] Thanks, Steve. [06:06] There are two ways for Democrats to think about their chances of winning a majority in the Senate this fall. OK, one way suggests their chances are slim. Democrats need to pick up four seats, which requires them to win some very red states, possibly including Texas. Now, the other way suggests their chances are better. [06:28] That's a chance in red states, possibly including Texas. NPR's Stephen Fowler has an assessment. Stephen, good morning. Good morning. OK, start with Texas. Ken Paxton, state attorney general, won the primary, knocked off Senator John Cornyn. So what makes that race a little harder for Republicans? Well, for starters, there's no incumbency advantage there. Paxton's margins were decisive in the runoff. That saw lower turnout. And the official Republican Senate campaign arm spent months running brutal attack ads

[06:58] . [06:59] All the while, Democrat James Tallarico has been a fundraising juggernaut, has way more party unity behind him, in a favorable environment for Democrats, and is already leaning in on the myriad scandals that have plagued Paxton. Okay, so Democrats feel good about their candidate. Republicans feel a little less good. Is this pattern repeated in some other states? [07:21] Well, I also want to note that's kind of the inverse of the 2022 midterms where Republicans had the structural advantage trying to knock off Democrats in a redder year. But you had Trump-backed nominees fall short in competitive states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona. But you are right. There are several states this year where Democrats have the best candidates they could actually hope for against vulnerable incumbents and they're hoping to ride away. OK, so we mentioned Texas already, but walk us across the whole map here. [07:51] flip four of the following. North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska. Some of those are red states, others a bit more purple. In a normal year, you may think that's a Sisyphean task. I mean, Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas in three decades, for example. But the way polls are looking, and with the demographics of Texas in particular, that could very likely be that 51st [08:21] purple or red states, Democrats would need to win several of them. How do you get to the point where a Democrat would win in a heavily Republican state? Think of it like a game of tug of war, Steve. In this case, Republicans have to contend with Trump not being on the ballot, cheering people on, and maybe some of his supporters not showing up. Plus, some moderates who might be opposed to Paxton could stay home too. And on the other side, Democrats hope to bring back some people

[08:51] And they're anchored by a base of supporters who are also stronger, more energized, more determined to vote. And that may pull Tallarico across the finish line. OK, so that is the way things would look in Texas. But we mentioned these other states. I guess in some states, the candidates are not entirely settled, right? [09:09] Right. Still worth watching. Iowa Democrats on Tuesday have to decide who they want to face off against Representative Ashley Henson. The options there are Josh Turek and Zach Walls. And then Michigan's primary is the beginning of August. And that's one where Republicans are actually feeling the most optimistic for a flip right now. But, you know, Steve, this is politics. So things always change. That's a good point. There are states where Democrats are on the offensive trying to flip a seat, [09:39] on in places like Michigan as well. Stephen, thanks so much. Thank you. That's NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler, who's in Atlanta. [09:47] Music [09:57] Some other news now. The director general of the World Health Organization is expected to arrive today in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is struggling to contain an Ebola outbreak. Officials say there are more than a thousand suspected cases and over 200 suspected deaths, though the figures are likely far higher. Neighboring Rwanda and Uganda have closed their borders with Congo. We're joined now by Emmett Livingstone from the DRC's capital, Kinshasa. Welcome back.

[10:24] Thank you for having me. Okay. Before even making the visit, the WHO director general described Eastern Congo as, quote, a catastrophic collision of disease and conflict. How bad is it? [10:38] Catastrophic is the word that really sums it up. The WHO director general may see it for himself when he travels later this week to the epicenter in a Turi province in eastern Congo. This is a region riven by militia violence and extreme poverty, and the health system there is a broken shell. The heart of the outbreak is a remote gold mining town called Mongualu, and health workers and NGOs there face huge challenges. Some residents don't believe that Ebola exists. [11:07] tents and parts of the town are now no-go zones. I've been speaking to Dr. Esther Sturck, a tropical disease specialist for Doctors Without Borders in Mongualu. Every day there are many community deaths and suspected patients arriving at the hospital, which probably only is a small proportion of all cases at the moment. And one of the big challenges is the lack of diagnostics capacity, where often it takes many, many days before the laboratory results come out. So put simply, the hospitals [11:37] NGOs are overwhelmed and struggling to keep up with the scale of the outbreak. We heard A say that Rwanda closed their border. Uganda closed its border. The neighboring countries must be very concerned. [11:47] Neighboring countries are really on high alert. Uganda has so far recorded seven confirmed cases, according to its health ministry. But concern is now spreading internationally as well. It's not just regional. Canada has announced a 90-day entry ban for residents from Congo, Uganda and South Sudan. Last week, the U.S. banned non-citizens who had traveled to any of those three countries from entering. The White House confirms the U.S. is establishing a facility in Kenya for Americans who may have been exposed to Ebola,

[12:17] and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the administration, and I quote, [12:22] cannot and will not allow any cases of Ebola to enter the United States. What are the most urgent needs right now? [12:28] The immediate priorities are containing the virus, and that requires PPE, a ramping up of testing capacity, isolation units, and tracing known contacts of suspected Ebola cases. There are major gaps in diagnostics, delays of days in confirming cases who are showing symptoms, which is slowing a response. Security and access remain critical issues in conflicted areas like Eturi, and there is $500 million of international aid that has been pledged, [12:58] just beginning and the delivery of aid [13:00] is hampered by insecurity, by logistics, by weak health infrastructure, and unfortunately, in some places, by corruption. Unlike some other Ebola strains, there is currently no vaccine for this one, and for many communities, help is only arriving after the dead have already been buried. Okay, we will continue listening for your reporting from Congo. Emmett Livingstone in Kinshasa, thanks so much. Thank you. [13:30] I'm Steve Inskeep.

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